If history has taught us one thing, it’s that if you’re going to invade Russia, it’s best to do it in the summer time, because it gives you the greatest window of time to do whatever damage you need to do to the country before either winter sets in, and you’re liable to freeze to death, or spring, when the terrain effectively turns to mud, in which all of the heavy machinery (tanks, trucks, etc.) required for the invasion will be rendered useless.
If history has taught us two things, it’s that the Best Director category typically corresponds with the Best Picture category pretty closely.
Best Director
The Sure Things:
Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
Gus Van Sant (Milk)
The PGAs and the DGAs both back these up, so it’s pretty certain that these are the way the things going to go down. Of course, there could naturally be some kind of shake-up. If that happens, I’d guess that it happens to Howard. He’s been honored before, and even if this supposedly represents his best work in years, I don’t feel any one really excited about this movie.
Mystery Fifth Slot:
Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler)
Sam Mendes (Revolutionary Road)
Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight)
John Patrick Shanley (Doubt)
Everything’s leading up to Nolan, but Knight is our best bet for the fifth slot for Best Picture, and with a field this wide open, I’d be surprised if Picture and Director are five for five. Director is a name recognition category, which is why the hand-out usually goes to someone with a much smaller film, but has notable people involved (David Lynch for Mulholland Drive, Mike Leigh for Vera Drake).
So if we’re going to pattern, I think that we’re looking at Aronofsky. Even if he is a smaller film-maker whose film doesn’t much of a shot, his is a name people recognize (he is, after all, something of an auteur). I also feel like this movie is getting a lot of recognition without people necessarily knowing what to nominate it for. This could be it. Plus, Road sucked, and most people know that’s Mendes’s fault, and Doubt just hasn’t gotten enough heat to get a nod for anybody but the actors.
