There probably isn’t a category less buzzed about this year than Best Supporting Actress (maybe Best Sound Editing). I mean, nobody really cares. There were certainly some good performances by women in secondary roles, but there wasn’t a break away surge of brilliance that’s enough to make the industry turn its head and look, nor is there any one who has deserved it for years and is only now going to finally get it. Thankfully, there also wasn’t anything as teeth-grindingly awful as Renee Zellwegger in Cold Mountain that the Academy has confused for acting in the running either, so its good to count your blessings.
Let’s get started, shall we?
Best Supporting Actress
You Can Count On ‘Em:
Amy Adams (Doubt)
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Christina Barcelona)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
These three were nominated for both Golden Globes and BAFTAs, so you can rest fairly assured that their names will be mentioned tomorrow morning. The winner will probably be from among these three. Since Tomei has already won (according to urban legend, she only got that one because the announcer misread the envelope), and Adams probably hasn’t paid enough dues in that town to garner an award, it might be Cruz. Which is the kind of thing that happens a lot. You know, there’s an attractive actress, and then everyone fawns over how good she is in this one movie, and then she gets an award, and the circle of life continues. Or, in the case of Charlize Theron, it leads to Hancock.
You Might Want To Think About:
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Frieda Pinto (Slumdog Millionaire)
Tilda Swinton (Burn After Reading)
Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Contrary to popular belief, the Academy is not in love with the Holocaust. The ongoing joke is that if a film deals with the Holocaust in an at all serious way, its guaranteed to win (or at least be nominated for Best Picture), and it simply ain’t so. In the eighty plus year history of the awards, only one film that dealt directly with it has won Best Picture (Schindler’s List). You have roughly the same odds of betting on a film starring Kevin Costner. Point being, The Reader shouldn’t count its chickens before they hatch. Even with Kate’s one-two punch at the Globes, awards for this film are by no means guaranteed. She’ll probably be nominated, but I doubt she’ll win.
My other guess is Swinton, because although Slumdog should expect some serious nods tomorrow, Pinto just doesn’t have that ‘unpronounceable’ quality that previous Best Supporting Actress Contenders from sort of foreign films (Shohreh Aghdashloo, Sophie Okonedo) have had. And I've heard that Davis is really good, but I've only heard it from people I know. I haven't heard it from, you know, any of the people voting.
