The Oscar race is on again. Office pools everywhere are likely heating up with the announcement of the nominees for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards (airing February 27th on ABC). I may not know who will be winners and I am not a gambling man, but playing prophet is always fun, regardless of the award.
As always, there should be two picks for each category when you're faced with a list of Oscar nominees. One as a personal pick and one as a guess as to which the Academy would pick.
Color Codes:
I prefer...
But it will probably be...
But where the hell is...
• • •
Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
Colin Firth in “The King's Speech”
James Franco in “127 Hours”
(Ryan Gosling in "Blue Valentine")
After Bridges already stealing the Oscar Firth deserved last year, it would be nice to see him win this time, but late-to-the-race Bardem might pull an upset, especially given how the entire trailer for Biutiful is dedicated to praising his performance. Gosling's snub is criminal, considering that his co-star Michelle Williams is nominated.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone”
Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech”
Under-appreciated that he is, it would be great to see Hawkes win such a high-profile award for his amazing turn in Winter's Bone, but everyone and their mothers agree that Bale will most likely get it.
Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone”
Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”
With their preference for showy (and frankly, shrill) female performances, it makes sense that the Academy would like something like Portman in Black Swan and agree with the Golden Globes, over a more precise tone like Williams'.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech”
Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”
Melissa Leo's over-the-top scene-chewery is pretty much a lock for the supporting role Oscar, as that's what's often required (ahem, Mo'nique, anyone?), but if you've seen Animal Kingdom, it's obvious that Weaver deserves this one.
Music (Original Score)
“How to Train Your Dragon” John Powell
“Inception” Hans Zimmer
“The King's Speech” Alexandre Desplat
“127 Hours” A.R. Rahman
“The Social Network” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
("Tron: Legacy" Daft Punk)
Sure, Daft Punk's score ended up being more traditional film score than a full-blown trip to electronicaland that people thought it would be, but still—how many nominations does Hans Zimmer need, really? It would have been great to see Daft Punk and Reznor sitting in the Oscar audience.
Music (Original Song)
“Coming Home” from “Country Strong” Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
“I See the Light” from “Tangled” Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
“If I Rise” from “127 Hours” Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
“We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3" Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
"If I Rise" is much better than the rest of Rahman's derivative score on 127 Hours, though Randy Newman may win this one through sheer weeping sentimentality.
Cinematography
“Black Swan” Matthew Libatique
“Inception” Wally Pfister
“The King's Speech” Danny Cohen
“The Social Network” Jeff Cronenweth
“True Grit” Roger Deakins
("Greenberg" Harry Savides)
The King's Speech has been getting many-a praise over its lavish, busy-patterned shots, but there's simply something elegant in Cronenweth's use of the digital camera in The Social Network, starkly contrasting the beats of night life, the architecture of Ivy League and the sterilized chaos of Silicone Valley offices.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
“127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
“The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
“Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
“True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“Winter's Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
No arguments here: Aaron Sorkin's rapid-fire wit cannon is the stuff voters usually gravitate to, and this time it's dead on. This screenplay is dense, funny, and like Sorkin's usual work, has a musical quality that's a pleasure to listen to.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
“Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
“The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
“Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
“The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
“The King's Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler
("Four Lions" Written by Chris Morris and Sam Bain & Jesse Armstrong)
Inception gets a bad rap for being clinical and exposition heavy, but what do you expect for a story that rests its suspense so dearly on its mechanics? The premise alone is one of those lightning-in-a-bottle concepts, and Nolan deserves a reward for teasing audiences so effortlessly with it.
Directing
“Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
“The Fighter” David O. Russell
“The King's Speech” Tom Hooper
“The Social Network” David Fincher
“True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Aronofsky juggled the more complex themes (and the more difficult tone) in his movie, but the Academy is usually awed by directors who can weave timeline-stretching narratives, especially when it's considered to be a deft portrait of an entire generation.
Documentary (Feature)
“Exit through the Gift Shop” Banksy and Jaimie D'Cruz
“Gasland” Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic
“Inside Job” Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
“Restrepo” Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
“Waste Land” Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley
Honesty is the best policy: I want to see Exit through the Gift Shop win just to see who Banksy will get to accept the award. I hope it's not as boring as just the film's producers. Mr. Brainwash, maybe?
Foreign Language Film
“Biutiful” Mexico
“Dogtooth” Greece
“In a Better World” Denmark
“Incendies” Canada
“Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)” Algeria
I make no attempts to hide my love for Dogtooth, so the nomination alone is elating, but an Iñárritu-helmed tearjerky redemption story like Biutiful may prove to be too irresistible.
Animated Feature Film
“How to Train Your Dragon” Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
“The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet
“Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich
Was there ever any doubt what's going to win? If the Pixar worship of the Academy isn't enough, the near-unanimous praise for Toy Story 3 cinched it. Personally, I found it as ultimately disappointing as The Illusionist given the promise involved (a Chomet film from a Tati screenplay should not be so mediocre). That leaves only one option that actually delivered.
Best Picture
“Black Swan” Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
“The Fighter” David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
“Inception” Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
“The Kids Are All Right” Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
“The King's Speech” Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
“127 Hours” Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
“The Social Network” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
“Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson, Producer
“True Grit” Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
“Winter's Bone" Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers
A repeat of the Directing category. Black Swan is the daring, deserving film in the bunch, but Best Picture winners tend to represent Hollywood's desire to front a conventional cultural zeitgeist, and no film allows them to do so more than The Social Network.
• • •
There are more categories, of course, but I'll admit that I haven't seen all of the Short Subject nominees (to be rectified soon) and taking a stab at categories like Best Sound Mixing and Best Art Direction would just be the equivalent of my throwing dice into the air.
You can view those nominees on this Oscar ballot PDF. Do you have better guesses?
